After Prince Harry's success in Sydney ...

The Australian republicans are funny. No, that’s not correct, that would assume they have a sense of humour. But they make Monarchists smile, when they start complaining about divisive politics. They, of all people should know how divisve they can be.
 

Prince Harry among the Abbott family.

What upset the Australian Republican Movement (ARM) was Prime Minister Tony Abbott welcome to Prince Harry last Saturday in Sydney. He said: "I regret to say that not every Australian is a monarchist, but today everyone feels like a monarchist. You grace us as your family has graced our nation from its beginning. It is quite fitting on a day such as this when we think back over 100 years of the Royal Australian Navy that you are here as the crown is a symbol of continuity, decency, stability in our public life."

It was clear – and Tony Abbott knew that in advance – that the republicans would not agree and they would opject to every single word of his speech. And they fell into the trap and started a protest. Had they kept silent or made a funny remark about their inclusion as secret Monarchists, well, they may have gained some points. But they behaved as could be expected. ARM’s chairman Geoff Gallop called Mr. Abbott’s welcome speech "totally inappropriate". "The Fleet Review was a day for all Australians to celebrate, whatever their views on the Constitution, and certainly not a day for divisive comments from the Prime Minister. It is in order to defend Australia, not Buckingham Palace, that the navy exists. Of this the Prime Minister needs to be reminded."

The Romans knew: Si tacuisses, philosophus mansisses (In English: If you had remained silent, you would have remained a philosopher), but keeping silent is not the republicans’ cup of tea. And certainly they do not want to be seen as philosophers.

Prince Harry was a crowd puller in Sydney.

An Australian republic is not inevitable

Benjamin T. Jones, co-editor of Project Republic, teaches history at the University of Western Sydney. He is pessimistic about his group's efforts to establish a republican regime in Australia. On the ABC's Drum, he explains, why an Australian republic is not inevitable.

"The inevitability of an Australian republic is a myth so often spouted that it is accepted as fact with little scrutiny.

"Set against a Cold War back drop in 1954, when the Queen first visited Australia she was seen as a symbol of freedom and democracy as opposed to slavish communism. Country MP, Hugh Robertson gushed that her presence affirmed 'our faith in our democratic systems'. When she returned in 1988 to open our new parliament house, opposition Liberal leader, John Howard acknowledged her as 'the pinnacle of our democracy'.

"This is precisely why a republic is not inevitable. The British monarchy has a proven record of remarkable adaptability to suit the times. Despite the dictatorial powers afforded to the British monarch in our constitution, through protocol and practice, it is seen as a powerless and inoffensive titular head that is worth preserving. Despite the inherent elitism and privilege, monarchy has somehow morphed into a symbol of Westminster democracy."

Good to see some realism in the republican ranks. Her Majesty has outlived all republicans who one thought while they were in office they could topple her. The transition to King Charles III, whenever it may come, will be a smooth one and his reign will be as successful as his mother's.

Aussie republicans claim not to be afraid of Tony Abbott

If it weren’t for their adherence to an obscure ideology, one could feel sorry for the Australian republicans.
It was only on 26^th July 2013 that David Morris, national director of the Australian Republican Movement (ARM) told AAP (published in The Australian):

 “... when we try and talk about Australia (and a republic) the media has no interest."

Morris said: "It's very depressing."

A month later he gave another interview to AAP published by Ninesmn on 26th August, Abbott 'won't set backrepublican cause' , this time to claim:

“The head of Australia's republican movement says the cause would not be hurt by Tony Abbott, a monarchist, becoming prime minister.

“If the polls are right, a man who once headed Australians for a Constitutional Monarchy is on track to become the next prime minister.

“But Australian Republican Movement national director David Morris says Mr Abbott's potential elevation to the top job would be unlikely to set back the cause of constitutional change."

By this claim Mr Morris contradicts the July article, where The Australian published these figures:

“In the early 1990s some 70 per cent of Australians wanted a republic while 30 per cent were monarchists.

“But since the failed 1999 referendum, support for a republic has dropped to about 40 per cent.”

In January 2013 The Age quoted Mr Morris with these remarks:

"The Australian Republican Movement's national director, David Morris, said republicanism had been off the agenda since the referendum because of a ''complete lack of political leadership''.

"Mr Morris said the movement was launching a new campaign, with the slogan ''Our identity: who do we want to be?'' and would focus on Australians ''growing up'' and gaining their independence."

Did anybody take notice of the ARM’s identity campaign? It left no impact here. The ARM launched the campaign in October 2012 in Hobart and went public with an ARM sponsored opinion poll that hardly showed their strength. The Age reported under the headline Republic? Young want to keep it in the (royal) family:

"They were the hope of the republican side - confident young Australians with weak emotional ties to Britain increasingly taking over from ageing monarchists and putting the next referendum on the issue beyond doubt. It hasn't quite worked out that way.

"Research commissioned by the Australian Republican Movement shows that 45 per cent of Australians under 30 want a republic - fewer than any other age group apart from those 70 or over. Strongest support, at 54 per cent, is among baby boomers, particularly men.

"Moreover, young people are much more positive towards the Queen. As one young participant in a focus group put it, she is ''like a mother figure''. If Australia became a republic, ''we'd feel as though we'd lost a family'', said another.

"Nevertheless, he concedes that the research is sobering. Or, in the words of UMR Research, which did the polling, ''the Australian Republican Movement's task is massive''.

The research shows that while 48 per cent of voters overall favour a republic, only 18 per cent are strong supporters. The same proportion rate the issue as very important, but they are more likely to be monarchists than republicans. As UMR put it, ''As passion grows, republican support declines.''

It is more likely, that David Flint’s remarks on Tony Abbott are closer to reality and the improbability of any republican progress under a possible Prime Minister Tony Abbott. He wrote:

"On Wednesday afternoon, instead of prepping for the debate, writes Mark Baker in The Age 24 August, 2013 (Tony) Abbott took himself to the northern outskirts of Brisbane to mingle with members of the Pine Rivers Memorial Bowls Club. He thoughtfully brought a framed portrait of the Queen to replace the one that went missing during renovations a couple of years ago.

''The monarch is a great symbol of unity. The Crown has served us well,'' said Tony Abbott, as the bowlers voted with applause."

But an election is only finished, when the last votes are counted. And referenda are not won by the assertion of either side, that they have a majority only because one of their numerous self-organised opinion polls claim they'd had a majority.